Refining the Numbers: A Cautionary Tale of Geopolitics and Profit Taking The oil refining sector has seen a remarkable surge in 2026, with Marathon, Valero, and HF Sinclair shares gaining over 80% against an 11% S&P 500 gain.
The WTI 3 2 1 crack spread has nearly tripled since January, a staggering figure that has left many investors wondering if this is the new normal. Historical data suggests otherwise.
Five instances of similar performance by the S&P 500 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Sub Industry group have been followed by negative returns over the next six months. The average return was a dismal 10. 1%.