Sweden Heads to the Polls: What’s at Stake in the Knife-Edge Election?

Sweden’s upcoming general election has all the makings of a closely contested vote, with polls indicating a tight contest between a center-left coalition and a right-wing government led by the Moderate Party. The outcome is not just about which party takes power but also about whether the far-right Sweden Democrats will finally break through into mainstream politics.

The Sweden Democrats have been gaining influence for years, fueled by their tough stance on immigration and crime. Their ascension to power would be a seismic shift in Swedish politics, marked by growing acceptance of far-right ideologies that were once considered taboo. As the party’s influence has grown, so too has its ability to shape government policy from outside the cabinet.

Immigration is a major issue driving this election. The 2015 refugee crisis saw an estimated 163,000 asylum seekers arrive in Sweden, sparking a shift in public opinion with immigration becoming the top issue for 53 percent of voters almost overnight. In response, Sweden has implemented some of Europe’s toughest migration policies, including stricter residency requirements and incentives to leave.

However, these measures have sometimes gone too far, even for right-wing voters. The government’s focus on repatriation and its hubris-driven approach have led to a series of scandals dominating headlines this year. Swedish commentator Zina al-Dewany notes that these measures have often been overly restrictive, leading to concerns about public safety versus refugee welfare.

The impact of the refugee crisis is still being felt in Sweden today, with many questioning whether the country has struck the right balance between welcoming refugees and maintaining public safety. While the far-right would like to see even more restrictive policies, some on the center-left are starting to sound alarmingly similar – a worrying trend that suggests the boundaries between left and right may be blurring.

Foreign policy is another major issue driving this election. Sweden’s decision to join NATO in 2024 marks a significant shift in its security posture, driven in part by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While there’s broad agreement across the spectrum on supporting Ukraine, debate centers on how much to spend and how far Europe should go in strengthening its own defense.

The issue of Palestine highlights the stark divide between left and right. The current government has taken a pro-Israel stance, pushing for EU sanctions against extremist settlers and ministers – but stopping short of calling Israel’s actions genocide. If the Sweden Democrats were to enter power, they’d take this stance even further, with motions calling for moving the Swedish embassy to Jerusalem and ending all aid to Palestinians.

This election is not just about which party takes power but also about what kind of politics will define Sweden in the years to come. Will we see a hardening of attitudes on immigration and foreign policy? Or will there be a return to the more inclusive, compromising style of governance that has characterized Swedish politics for decades?

The outcome of this election will have significant implications not just for Sweden but also for the wider European landscape. As Swedes head to the polls on Sunday, their choice won’t just be about which party takes power but also about what kind of politics they want for their country.