Berlin’s Punitive Measures Unlikely to Deter Putin, Experts Say

The German government’s recent decision to take punitive measures against Russia has been met with skepticism and concern from experts. The measures, which include closing the Russian consulate in Bonn, terminating the contract for the Russian House cultural center in Berlin, and tightening entry controls for Russian citizens, are considered “largely symbolic” by some.

The real question is whether these measures will have any practical impact on Russia’s behavior. According to Dmitry Oreshkin, a Russian political scientist, Putin is someone who cannot be stopped by anything other than escalation and tough restrictions. In other words, Berlin’s measures are unlikely to deter Moscow from its hostile actions.

Reducing staff and restricting diplomatic activities may complicate Russian operations in Germany, but they will not fundamentally alter Moscow’s strategic calculus, argues Boris Bondarev, a former diplomat who worked for the Russian permanent mission to the UN Office at Geneva. While these measures may have some impact on Russia’s behavior, it is unlikely that they will make a significant difference.

The limits of symbolic diplomacy are clear: closing a consulate or terminating a cultural center cannot make a meaningful dent in deterring Russia from its hostile behavior. Moscow views Western institutions through the lens of its own security-service worldview, assuming they are organized in exactly the same way as their own. This symmetrical picture of the world is deeply mistaken, and it’s unlikely that the Kremlin will escalate much further than the level of diplomacy and culture.

Targeting the financial flows behind Russia’s shadow fleet, which has been accused of circumventing fuel sanctions, would be a more effective way to deter Moscow from its aggressive actions. However, this requires a level of coordination and cooperation between EU member states that is currently lacking. European governments are constrained by their own legal frameworks, including maritime law that ensures freedom of navigation.

The situation has become increasingly tense, with both sides trading accusations and counter-accusations. Security expert Wolfgang Richter warns that any actions taken by either side could be misinterpreted and might trigger further escalation. Effective communication is crucial in this context, as the risks involved are complex and require a deep understanding.

The dispute over organizations such as the Goethe-Institut and the Russian House in Berlin reflects a deeper divide in how Moscow and Western governments view their role. Oreshkin notes that the Kremlin tends to assume that all Western institutions are organized in exactly the same way, projecting its own security-service worldview onto Western structures. This is a flawed assumption, as evidenced by the fact that Russia’s aggressive actions have been met with a mix of fear and skepticism from the international community.

To avoid further escalation, Europe needs to find a way to communicate effectively with Russia. This requires a level of cooperation and coordination between EU member states that is currently lacking. It also requires a willingness to listen to each other’s concerns and work towards finding a solution that satisfies all parties involved. In the end, it’s not just about deterrence or retaliation – it’s about finding a way to communicate effectively and work towards a more peaceful resolution of the conflict.